Is BookieBane a tip service?

No. BookieBane is a decision support platform. The models flag statistically significant edges between model-projected spreads and market lines - users see the full math (model spread, market spread, edge size, signal factors) and make the call themselves. BookieBane never uses terms like 'lock' or 'guaranteed.'

How does BookieBane generate picks?

The BANE Signal system runs multiple independent signal types against every NBA and NCAAB game. Efficiency Edge uses adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to find teams priced wrong by the market. Additional filters check ATS trends, line movement, schedule density, and player availability. Only signals that exceed strict statistical thresholds and pass analyst review go live. The methodology draws on publicly available play-by-play data from the NBA and NCAA, combined with proprietary efficiency models.

Can I verify BookieBane's track record?

Yes. Every signal is graded publicly on the BookieBane dashboard - wins and losses, with no cherry-picking. The full season record, unit profit/loss, and individual game results are visible to all users before they spend a dollar.

What does the free tier include?

Free members get daily trend alerts, post-game results on every signal, and full access to the public track record. This lets users verify the model's performance before subscribing to Edge.

What does BookieBane Edge include?

Edge subscribers receive every analyst-reviewed signal before game time, with full math: model spread vs. market spread, edge strength in points, and the signal factors driving the pick. Also includes NBA props, MLB signals, per-game analysis pages, morning email digest, and API access. Edge is $24.99/month or $199/year.

What sports does BookieBane cover?

BookieBane covers NBA, NCAAB (college basketball including March Madness), and MLB. The BANE Signal system models every game individually using adjusted efficiency ratings, historical performance, and market line analysis. NBA props (assists, points, rebounds) are also included in the Edge community.

How often do 12-seeds beat 5-seeds in March Madness?

12-seeds have beaten 5-seeds in 55 out of 156 first-round matchups since 1985, an upset rate of 35.3%. This means roughly one in three 5-vs-12 matchups produces an upset.

What is the most common upset in March Madness?

The 8-vs-9 matchup has a 51.9% upset rate (9-seeds lead 81-75 historically), making it essentially a coin flip. For meaningful upsets, the 6-vs-11 matchup has the highest rate at 39.1%, followed by 7-vs-10 at 38.7% and 5-vs-12 at 35.3%.

Has a 16-seed ever beaten a 1-seed?

Yes, twice. UMBC defeated Virginia in 2018 (74-54) and Fairleigh Dickinson defeated Purdue in 2023 (63-58). In 156 games, 1-seeds have won 154 times (98.7%).

What seed wins the most NCAA Tournament championships?

1-seeds have won 25 of 39 championships since 1985 (64.1%). 2-seeds have won 5, 3-seeds have won 4, and 4-seeds have won 2. The lowest seed to win the title is an 8-seed (Villanova in 1985).

← ResearchTournament Data

NCAA Tournament Seed History

39 years of March Madness data, visualized. Every seed matchup, every round, every trend.

March 1, 2026·8 min

TL;DR

→9-seeds hold a winning record (81-75) over 8-seeds - the only lower seed that does.

→12-seeds beat 5-seeds more than a third of the time (35.3%). The 6/11 matchup is worse at 39.1%.

→1-seeds have won 25 of 39 championships. No seed lower than 8 has ever won the title.

→Upsets are trending upward - 5 of the last 7 tournaments had above-average upset rates.

2,518

Tournament Games

Seasons (1985-2024)

27.6%

Overall Upset Rate

695

First-Round Upsets

First-Round Upset Rates

How often each seed matchup produces an upset, based on every first-round game since the 64-team era began in 1985. Hover to see win/loss records and notable upsets.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET RATE BY SEED MATCHUP (1985–2024)

Upset Zone (>35%)

Vulnerable (14-21%)

Chalk (<8%)

Coin Flip (8v9)

Win/Loss Breakdown by Matchup

The visual weight of each bar shows how lopsided - or competitive - each seed matchup truly is.

1v16Higher seed 154–2 · 1.3% upset rate

154W

2v15Higher seed 145–11 · 7.1% upset rate

145W

11W

3v14Higher seed 133–23 · 14.7% upset rate

133W

23W

4v13Higher seed 123–33 · 21.2% upset rate

123W

33W

5v12Higher seed 101–55 · 35.3% upset rate

101W

55W

6v11Higher seed 95–61 · 39.1% upset rate

95W

61W

7v10Higher seed 95–60 · 38.7% upset rate

95W

60W

8v9Higher seed 75–81 · 51.9% upset rate

75W

81W

💡

The 5/12 matchup (35.3%) is the most famous upset seed, but the data shows 6/11 (39.1%) and 7/10 (38.7%) are actually more dangerous for the higher seed.

Survival Rate by Round

How far does each seed typically go? Select a round to see win rates. The dropoff from Round of 64 to Sweet 16 is where brackets break.

WIN RATE BY SEED - ROUND OF 64

1-seeds win 98.7% of first-round games but only 61.2% of Elite 8 games. The steepest dropoff belongs to 4-seeds: 79.2% in the first round crashes to 35.1% in the Sweet 16. By the time you reach the Elite 8, every game is competitive regardless of seeding.

Are Upsets Increasing?

First-round upset percentage by year. The gold line shows the 5-year moving average. The data suggests a slight upward trend, with 5 of the last 7 tournaments above the historical average.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET RATE BY YEAR (1985–2024)

Historical average: 27.6% · 2020 excluded (COVID cancellation)

Champions by Seed

Who wins it all? 1-seeds have won 25 of 39 championships (64%). No seed lower than 8 has ever cut down the nets.

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS BY SEED (1985–2024)

All-Time Upset Leaders by Seed

Which seeds produce the most total upsets across all rounds? 11-seeds lead at 97, powered by competitive first-round matchups plus occasional deep runs.

#11 seed

#9 seed

#10 seed

#12 seed

#5 seed

#6 seed

#7 seed

#13 seed

Analyst-reviewed picks · NBA + NCAAB · Every result graded publicly

See how our models use this data - live track record →

What This Means for 2026

The data doesn't tell you which specific 12-seed will beat which 5-seed. It tells you that approximately two of the four 5/12 matchups will produce upsets, and that efficiency-based models are dramatically better at identifying which two than seeding alone.

Starting Selection Sunday (March 17), we publish BANE Scores for every tournament matchup - our composite upset probability engine. Combined with our Four Factor analysis and efficiency edge projections, every game gets its own data-driven breakdown.

All results graded publicly on our track record page. No hidden picks. No selective reporting.

⚠

Historical performance does not predict future outcomes. This is analysis of past tournament data, not a betting recommendation. See our responsible gambling page.

RELATED RESEARCH

MARCH MADNESS

5 Upset Signals to Watch in 2026

METHODOLOGY

How the BANE Score Works

STRATEGY

March Madness Betting Guide

LIVE DATA

Our Full Track Record

Win/Loss Breakdown by Matchup

The visual weight of each bar shows how lopsided - or competitive - each seed matchup truly is.

1v16Higher seed 154–2 · 1.3% upset rate

154W

2v15Higher seed 145–11 · 7.1% upset rate

145W

11W

3v14Higher seed 133–23 · 14.7% upset rate

133W

23W

4v13Higher seed 123–33 · 21.2% upset rate

123W

33W

5v12Higher seed 101–55 · 35.3% upset rate

101W

55W

6v11Higher seed 95–61 · 39.1% upset rate

95W

61W

7v10Higher seed 95–60 · 38.7% upset rate

95W

60W

8v9Higher seed 75–81 · 51.9% upset rate

75W

81W

💡

The 5/12 matchup (35.3%) is the most famous upset seed, but the data shows 6/11 (39.1%) and 7/10 (38.7%) are actually more dangerous for the higher seed.

Survival Rate by Round

How far does each seed typically go? Select a round to see win rates. The dropoff from Round of 64 to Sweet 16 is where brackets break.

WIN RATE BY SEED - ROUND OF 64

All-Time Upset Leaders by Seed

Which seeds produce the most total upsets across all rounds? 11-seeds lead at 97, powered by competitive first-round matchups plus occasional deep runs.

#11 seed

#9 seed

#10 seed

#12 seed

#5 seed

#6 seed

#7 seed

#13 seed

What This Means for 2026

All results graded publicly on our track record page. No hidden picks. No selective reporting.

⚠

Historical performance does not predict future outcomes. This is analysis of past tournament data, not a betting recommendation. See our responsible gambling page.

NCAA Tournament Seed History

First-Round Upset Rates

Win/Loss Breakdown by Matchup

Survival Rate by Round

Are Upsets Increasing?

Champions by Seed

All-Time Upset Leaders by Seed

What This Means for 2026

See these models in action

NCAA Tournament Seed History

First-Round Upset Rates

Win/Loss Breakdown by Matchup

Survival Rate by Round

Are Upsets Increasing?

Champions by Seed

All-Time Upset Leaders by Seed

What This Means for 2026

See these models in action